Greetings, All -- Here we all are, in 2012. Last year was a trip, wasn't it? Can we imagine that this year will be better? Worse? Predictions are probably best left to ancient sages such as Nostradamus, but we can look at a few facts and make a few suppositions even though a year from now, there will be egg on Hawkfinder's face.
The foremost question in most minds is probably the trends in the U.S. Economy which, of course, shares strong dependence on the state of the rest of the world. One of the most watched indicators of our stock markets is the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index (S&P 500) that reduces the performance of most of the values to a single number. Well, Folks, that number did not vary one iota between the opening and closing of 2011. Encouraging? It did not go down, so that is better than the alternative. Perhaps it is a somewhat hopeful sign, but I certainly do not know how to read it.
We are all acutely aware of the sluggish reluctance of unemployment to fall, yet there has been some improvement during past months. Other measures of U.S. economic activity have shown modest gains. The future may depend markedly on which politically-supported idea prevails: reduced spending through budget cuts or increased spending on infrastructure and other items aimed at reducing unemployment at the cost of temporarily increasing deficits. In the worst case, nothing at all will be done until after the November elections. Meanwhile, the solution of the enigma of Europe's future posture in all of this is yet to be revealed.
My personal concern runs beyond the Economy to issues of geopolitical friction and actual combat. There is a rising tide of quite bellicose comment regarding the perceived threat of a nuclear armed Iran. This troubles me because, contrary to most opinion, I believe Iran to be the key to quiet in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Should Iran, Pakistan and the United States work through the turmoil of today's headlines and come to some means of tolerating one another, that would be a giant step toward peaceful resolutions in the Middle East and South Asia. Considering present attitudes, that hope may be smashed on the anvil of reality.
Many other sore spots vex the globe, relations with China, North Korea (DPRK) and even with close allies on matters such as protection of the environment come to mind. These will be considered by Hawkfinder as the world turns. I join with you in hoping for the best. I am confident that our very capable civil and military capacities will be ready to deal with any contingency that we face. May they be few and tractable.
Best wishes, Billy Hawkfinder
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